Análise espacial de casos prováveis de febre pelo vírus Zika no município de São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil.

Abstract

The Zika virus is an arbovirus whose main transmitter vector is Aedes aegypti with a wide geographic distribution in the country. The occurrence of Fever by the Zika virus may be related to the social and environmental conditions conducive to the transmission dynamics of this disease. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of probable cases of Zika virus (ZIKV), correlating with climatic variables and Aedes aegypti index in the municipality of São Luís, Maranhão, and socioenvironmental factors used as indicators of transmission risk and the incidence of the disease. This is an ecological, population-based and climate-based study, obtained from cases of Zika fever reported in the SINAN (National Institute of Public Health Information System) in 2015 to 2016 in the municipality of São Luís - MA, data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and the Aedes aegypti Index Survey (LIRAa). A descriptive analysis of the variables related to the cases of the disease was performed. In the spatial analysis, spatial statistical techniques were used, Moran and Local Index for the identification of spatial clusters. For the temporal approach, the negative binomial regression model was used to verify the effect of the climatic variables and the Aedes aegypti Index Survey on the occurrence of cases. Stata software version 14.0 was used for statistical analysis and ArcGis version 10.5 software for mapping and calculating Moran global indexes. During the study period, 2,855 cases of Zika fever were registered in the municipality of São Luís, with a high incidence rate in the northern region of the municipality. In all SD there were records of cases of fever by the zika virus, with a higher concentration in the Bequimão DS. There was a statistically significant correlation between the Zika virus incidence rate and maximum temperature (p = 0.01), minimum humidity (p = 0.003) and IIP (p = 00.1). The overall Moran index did not identify significant autocorrelation of the incidence rate. High incidence rates were identified in locations with better socioenvironmental conditions of urban structure and higher rates of vector infestation, evidencing a close relation of the incidence with areas with high IIP, which may characterize an alert situation in the municipality of São Luís. , the underreporting may have contributed to the absence of a significant spatial correlation of the incidence of Zika virus in the municipality.